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The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security -- A Review
National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] 
May 18, 2005
Excerpt: The life-cycle accounts proposal for Social Security reform has been justified by its proponents using a number of different arguments, but these arguments generally involve the assumption of a high likelihood of good returns on the accounts. A simulation is undertaken to estimate the probability distribution of returns in the accounts based on long-term historical experience. U.S. stock market, bond market and money market data 1871-2004 are used for the analysis.
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