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Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller 
Apr. 9, 2001 Working paper, available to download for $5 from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Excerpt: Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that these ratios should be useful in forecasting future dividend growth, future earnings growth, or future productivity growth. We conclude that, overall, the ratios do poorly in forecasting any of these. MORE >> |
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