Matt Damon recently joined the actuarial community when he said - "You do the actuary tables, there's a one out of three chance, if not more, that McCain doesn't survive his first term, and it'll be President Palin. It's like a really bad Disney movie, "The Hockey Mom.' Oh, I'm just a hockey mom from Alaska, and she's president. "She's facing down Vladimir Putin and using the folksy stuff she learned at the hockey rink. It's absurd."

If McCain is 72, I calculated about a 10% chance of death during next 4 years, but Damon was really good in Good Will Hunting.

He is also a card carrying member of Red Sox Nation.

Your computations failed to take into consideration that Palin could predecease McCain. Perhaps the more appropriate actuarial proposition to consider is whether or not we'll survive the first term irrespective of who is Prez.


For those of you who desire more actuarial analysis re: Mr. Damon: http://www.culture11.com/node/32122

Aw, Andy, you're not that old, are you? But, if you don't survive the first term, you won't have to worry about the next election.

The last time the Boston Red Sox scouted me was during Tony Conigliaro's rookie season!

I guess Mr good will hunting flunked history as well as math. Teddy Roosevelt's only elective office before he became VP at the age of 42 was less than 2 years as NY gov. 6 months later he became president. He was definitely not the candidate that the Party leaders would have preferred. I dont hear anyone complaining about his accomplishments as president.

Ted who? Kennedy? Williams? Baxter?

There's another take on "what the party leaders would have preferred." As quoted in the Encyclopedia Americana,

"[Governor] Roosevelt antagonized corporations and the Republican political machine headed by Sen. Thomas Collier Platt by driving through a tax on corporate franchises, and he supported prolabor measures even as he called out the National Guard to suppress a strike. He also upgraded teachers' salaries, spurred passage of a bill to outlaw racial discrimination in public schools, and made a stab at arresting the blight of the slums. Finally, he took important steps to preserve the wildlife, forests, and natural beauty of his state.

The business community's resentment of Roosevelt's tax, regulatory, and other programs prompted "Boss" Platt to try to ease him out of the state. Platt encouraged Roosevelt to seek the office of vice president on the ticket with President McKinley in 1900."

In short, he it was easier to push him up than out.

All of these comments fail to take into account the office. That is, does holding the office of President increase your chances of dying, for any reason? Does a president "age" faster than the general population?

What is wrong with Damon's calculation ?

What is correct and why ?

The link given to the SSA Periodic Life Table seems irrelevant since it does not take health status into consideration. Doesn't John McCain suffer from malignant melanoma ?

Well, you must unfortunately factor in the chances of assassination. Sadly, this increases the percentage of Presidents not completing a term. I'll leave it to you people who don't count on your fingers to determine how that works into it.

Ronald Regan survived an attempted assassination at the age of 70 when he was severaly wounded. How do you factor his survival into the calculation?

JFK developed Addison's Disease in childhood which is a failure of the adrenal glands for which he received steroid injections beginning the late 1940s. It is highly unlikely he would have passed his Navy physical if he had revealed this condition. He was also on various pain killers for his back conditon from the early 50's until his death.

What would Jack (About Schmidt) Nicholson say?

Its never too late for "The Departed" to make up a "Bucket List" for "A few Good Men" because thats "As Good as it Gets" in "Chinatown" if "One flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" on an "Easy Rider" looking for "5 Easy Pieces" while "Mars Attacks".

On the other hand, a President will get excellent health care.

If a President were to die, there is a possibility we would not be informed. The movie, "Dave", was based on this premise.

Since the 1840's we had a president die in office every other decade ... until Reagan survived the attempt on his life.

Is this a paradigm shift or were the 1980's the exception that proves the rule?

Here's a site saying McCain's melanoma has a 66% 10 year survival rate, 8 years after the 2000 diagnosis:

http://casesblog.blogspot.com/2008/04/cnn-...ma-history.html

Here's another site indicating McCain went for a routine biopsy in June. It's hard for us to estimate the probability that the biopsy was bad but he decided to accept the nomination, anyway.

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art...rticlekey=14443

I thought deaths were limited to those presidents elected every 20 years beginning in 1840 and ending in 1960. If Bush survives his presidency will not this be proof that there is no curse to being elected in years evenly divided by 20 or is it only true for republican presidents who sign tax cut legislation?

Name this show and dear leader.

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p.s.
Star Trek (John Gill as propped up/drugged up puppet leader). No vulcans out there knew his? (except one who erased his reply). Star Trek foretold just about everything.

And there were no landings on the moon.

Okay, let us pull us away from the emotion and back to earth. All of us propeller heads know that probabilities applied to a population of one offer no confidence and require the law of large numbers to do their thing. So, agree upon a probility, and get on with life. You survival forecast no doubt will be wrong.

The article linked comes up with 1 in 6.5 (Damon said 1 in 3)... but that was for a healthy normal individual. We've established a history of cancer in the candidate and of higher stress and mortality associated w/ the office.... so is 1 in 3 really so far off that we shoot the messenger?

(Or if we shoot him, at least make it for the right reason... can anyone say "Dogma" or "Jay and Silent Bob"?)

How about "He looked like a Caribou with snow on his head" or "Had a few too many beers this morning while ice fishin".

Thanks, mjb, you reminded me how many good (and a few bad) movies Jack has made.

I'm curious. I wonder what those folks at the NSA are thinking when they read this thread.

I'm sure they are (or will). Or would it be the secret service that reads this?

What thread?

Hey, Dave . . . how do we change our handle?

How do you play the six degrees of kevin bacon?

http://oracleofbacon.org/

Close. Beginning in 1840, every president elected or re-elected in a year evenly divisible by 20 died in office: Wm Harrison(1840), Lincoln(1860), Garfield(1880), McKinley(1900), Harding(1920), F. Roosevelt(1940), Kennedy(1960). This pattern was broken by Reagan(1980).

But, this "rule" fails to include Zachary Taylor, elected in 1848, died 1850.

The Oracle does not recognize Ron Mexico, but does ask if you mean Michael Vick.

Matt Damon outBacons Kevin Bacon, ranking 990 and 1048, respectively, as of June 29, 2004 and is still ahead of him today.

Not trying to get back on-topic (what a concept in this case!!), but I read a (presumably) knowledgeable political journalist who also said that there's a 1 in 3 chance that McCain won't survive a first term. He must be an honorary member of the MDAS (Matt Damon Actuarial Society)--although I'm sure there are sets of facts, as has been suggested here, that could show a much higher chance of a Palin presidency within 4 years (assuming election of the GOP ticket, of course).

It's all in the point of view, assumptions made and mirrors used. Sort of like politics . . .

Are you implying that by using different assumptions you could actually get different answers? And that someone might skew the assumptions to produce an answer that benefited their agenda? Hmmmmm curious and curiouser...

I'm just glad pension actuaries would never do such a thing..

Gee, using even the 1793 Northampton Table, a 72 year old expected nearly another 9 years of life. Were these medically underwriten subjects? Did they have doctors available then?