The only uncertainties I can come up with is 1) you do not know the full amount of the bonus until the committee decides if the final year's goal is met (the total amount is undetermined, so how do you elect how much to defer?) and 2) if you are not employed at the end of the third year (other than by reason of death, disability, or retirement), you get nothing. I am still debating on whether any of this is substantial.
Also, what if a year's goals are not met? For example, what if there will be no bonus for 2004 because the goals weren't met, but the goals were met in 2003 and everyone hopes they will be met in 2005. Is there an election that needs to be made by 3/15/2005 because an amount will be paid in 2006? or is there an election for the 2003 amount due on 3/15/2005 and the election for 2005 can wait until 6/30/2005?
ALSO if there it is a 3-year program, are elections made 6 months before the end of each year (i.e. - if the years are 2005, 2006, and 2007, a separate election is made on 6/30/2005 for 2005's amount, on 6/30/2006 for 2006's amount and on 6/30/2006 for 2007's amount) OR does the participant make one election on 6/30/2005 or 12/31/2004 (extended to 3/15) for the whole 3 years??